EVIDENCE BEAR

The lighter side of expensive mistakes.

An illustrated field guide to what happens when assumptions become plans, incentives stay hidden and activity gets mistaken for progress.

Each entry combines one cartoon with one operating observation. The humour is light. The organisational consequences usually are not.

A startup team presents an increasingly elaborate roadmap while Evidence Bear questions what the plan is actually based on.

EVIDENCE BEAR #1

The Roadmap

Observation

A roadmap can look incredibly precise while concealing how little the team actually knows.

The danger begins when dates and features survive after the assumptions behind them have changed.

Related principle: Strategy is a hypothesis →

EVIDENCE BEAR #2

Shared Risk

Observation

Many business disagreements are not really about money. They are about fairness.

People will often accept a smaller upside before they accept an arrangement where the downside feels one-sided.

Related tool: Make assumptions and downside explicit →

A business team debates a deal while Evidence Bear listens as the real disagreement shifts from price to who carries the downside and who keeps the upside.
A startup team keeps proposing better pitch decks, stories, introductions and demos until Evidence Bear asks what would actually make an investor say yes and whether the team understands why previous investors said no.

EVIDENCE BEAR #3

The Investor Meeting

Observation

Fundraising discussions often drift toward improving the presentation before understanding the investment decision.

Founders experience fundraising as communication. Investors experience it as uncertainty. The useful question is what evidence would make the case believable.

Related application: Capital Readiness →

GO DEEPER

Tools

Practical ways to make assumptions visible and organise evidence.

Explore the tools →

Field Notes

Longer observations on leadership, product decisions, fundraising and organisational learning.

Read the Field Notes →

Case Files

See what the same problems look like inside real organisations.

Explore the Case Files →

Different cartoons. The same recurring operating problems.

Evidence Bear is created by Jörn Green. New observations are added as the bear encounters them.