NEW BOOK · 2026
Reasonable to Be Wrong
How Organisations Decide Before the Evidence Is Complete
By Jörn Green
Organisations rarely get the luxury of deciding only after uncertainty has disappeared. They commit capital, people and reputation while the evidence is still partial—and must distinguish what is known from what is merely believed.
The central discipline
The question is not whether leaders can eliminate uncertainty. It is whether they can make a decision that is proportionate to the evidence: explicit about assumptions, clear about what would change the conclusion, and carried into action without pretending the unknown has vanished.
Reasonable to Be Wrong turns that discipline into a practical approach for leadership teams facing commercial, operational and strategic commitments.
What you will take away
- Decide what evidence is strong enough to support the next commitment.
- Separate observation, interpretation and confidence before they become strategy.
- Design tests and decision rules that prevent activity from being mistaken for progress.
- Carry a decision through an organisation without hiding its remaining uncertainty.
This is the intellectual foundation of the Green Bear work: decisions that can be acted on now, while remaining open to revision when reality provides a better answer.
Make the next decision with the evidence you actually have.
Reasonable to Be Wrong offers a practical discipline for acting before certainty arrives—without confusing confidence with evidence.
Jörn Green 